Evidence for increasing global wheat yield potential
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Title |
Evidence for increasing global wheat yield potential
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Creator |
Guarin, Jose Rafael
Martre, Pierre Ewert, Frank Webber, Heidi Dueri, Sibylle Calderini, Daniel F. Reynolds, Matthew P. Molero, Gemma Miralles, Daniel García, Guillermo Slafer, Gustavo A. Giunta, Francesco Pequeno, Diego N.L. Stella, Tommaso Mukhtar Ahmed Alderman, Phillip D. Basso, Bruno Berger, Andres Bindi, Marco Bracho-Mujica, Gennady Cammarano, Davide Yi Chen Dumont, Benjamin Rezaei, Ehsan Eyshi Fereres, Elias Ferrise, Roberto Gaiser, Thomas Yujing Gao García Vila, Margarita Gayler, Sebastian Hochman, Zvi Hoogenboom, Gerrit Hunt, Leslie A. Kersebaum, Kurt C. Nendel, Claas Olesen, Jørgen E. Palosuo, Taru Priesack, Eckart Pullens, Johannes W. M. Rodríguez, Alfredo Rötter, Reimund Ruiz Ramos, Margarita Semenov, Mikhail A. Senapati, Nimai Siebert, Stefan Srivastava, Amit Stockle, Claudio Supit, Iwan Fulu Tao Thorburn, Peter J. Wang, Enli Weber, Tobias Karl David Liujun Xiao Zhao Zhang Chuang Zhao Zhao, Jin Zhigan Zhao Yan Zhu Asseng, Senthold |
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Subject |
climate change
crops food supply photosynthesis crop modelling food security model ensembles wheat yield increases breeding genetics |
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Description |
Wheat is the most widely grown food crop, with 761 Mt produced globally in 2020. To meet the expected grain demand by mid-century, wheat breeding strategies must continue to improve upon yield-advancing physiological traits, regardless of climate change impacts. Here, the best performing doubled haploid (DH) crosses with an increased canopy photosynthesis from wheat field experiments in the literature were extrapolated to the global scale with a multi-model ensemble of process-based wheat crop models to estimate global wheat production. The DH field experiments were also used to determine a quantitative relationship between wheat production and solar radiation to estimate genetic yield potential. The multi-model ensemble projected a global annual wheat production of 1050 ± 145 Mt due to the improved canopy photosynthesis, a 37% increase, without expanding cropping area. Achieving this genetic yield potential would meet the lower estimate of the projected grain demand in 2050, albeit with considerable challenges.
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Date |
2022-12-12
2023-03-03T16:21:21Z 2023-03-03T16:21:21Z |
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Type |
Journal Article
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Identifier |
Guarin, J.R., Martre, P., Ewert, F., Webber, H., Dueri, S., Calderini, D., Reynolds, M., Molero, G., Miralles, D., Garcia, G., Slafer, G., Giunta, F., Pequeno, D.N.L., Stella, T., Ahmed, M., Alderman, P.D., Basso, B., Berger, A.G., Bindi, M., … Asseng, S. 2022. Evidence for increasing global wheat yield potential. Environmental Research Letters, 17(12), 124045. https://hdl.handle.net/10883/22405.
1748-9326 https://hdl.handle.net/10568/129183 https://hdl.handle.net/10883/22405 https://doi.org/10.3389/fgene.2022.832153 |
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Language |
en
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Rights |
CC-BY-4.0
Open Access |
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Format |
application/pdf
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Publisher |
Frontiers Media SA
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Source |
Environmental Research Letters
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