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Quantifying future water-saving potential under climate change and groundwater recharge scenarios in Lower Chenab Canal, Indus River Basin

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Title Quantifying future water-saving potential under climate change and groundwater recharge scenarios in Lower Chenab Canal, Indus River Basin
 
Creator Shafeeque, Muhammad
Hafeez, Mohsin
Sarwar, A.
Arshad, A.
Khurshid, T.
Asim, M. I.
Ali, S.
Dilawar, A.
 
Subject water conservation
climate change
groundwater recharge
river basins
irrigation systems
irrigation efficiency
water resources
water management
energy balance
artificial recharge
water availability
projections
models
 
Description Quantifying water-saving potential (WSP) is crucial for sustainable water resource management in canal command areas and river basins. Previous studies have partially or fully ignored the importance of groundwater in WSP assessments, particularly in irrigated areas. This study is aimed at quantifying WSP in the Lower Chenab Canal (LCC) command area of the Indus River Basin, Pakistan, under various scenarios of future climate change and groundwater recharge. These quantifications are conducted using an empirical model based on the Budyko theory. The model was forced using observed, remote sensing, and CMIP6 future climate data for two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP245 and SSP585) and their ensembles (cold-dry, cold-wet, warm-dry, and warm-wet) for possible futures. The results showed that the average WSP in the LCC command area was 466 ± 48 mm/year during the historical period (2001–2020). The WSP is projected to decrease by – 68 ± 3% under the warm-dry ensemble scenario (SSP245 and SSP585) and – 48 ± 13% under the ensembled cold-wet scenario by 2100. The results also demonstrated that WSP could be increased by up to 70 ± 9% by artificially recharging 20% of the abstracted groundwater per year in the LCC command area by the late twenty-first century. Our findings highlight the importance of adopting artificial groundwater recharge to enhance the WSP and sustainably manage water resources in the LCC command area. Policymakers should consider these findings when deciding on water resource management in the Indus River Basin.
 
Date 2023-09-04
2023-09-30T17:15:24Z
2023-09-30T17:15:24Z
 
Type Journal Article
 
Identifier Shafeeque, Muhammad; Hafeez, Mohsin; Sarwar, A.; Arshad, A.; Khurshid, T.; Asim, M. I.; Ali, S.; Dilawar, A. 2023. Quantifying future water-saving potential under climate change and groundwater recharge scenarios in Lower Chenab Canal, Indus River Basin. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 18p. (Online first) [doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04621-y]
0177-798X
https://hdl.handle.net/10568/132077
https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s00704-023-04621-y.pdf?pdf=button
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04621-y
H052239
 
Language en
 
Rights CC-BY-4.0
Open Access
 
Format 18p. (Online first)
 
Publisher Springer Science and Business Media LLC
 
Source Theoretical and Applied Climatology