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From climate risk to resilience: Unpacking the economic impacts of climate change in Kenya

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Title From climate risk to resilience: Unpacking the economic impacts of climate change in Kenya
 
Creator Detelinova, Iva
Thomas, Timothy S.
Hammond, Wole
Arndt, Channing
Hartley, Faaiqa
 
Subject extreme weather events
climate change
precipitation
ecosystems
agriculture
water scarcity
drought
flooding
agriculture
 
Description Substantial model variability exists regarding the likely meteorological impact of climate change on Kenya, particularly with respect to future precipitation levels. Significant regional differences are expected, largely due to Kenya’s diverse climate profile. Overall, temperatures are projected to increase while future precipitation levels are highly uncertain. Climate change is expected to significantly affect coastal areas, including because of sea level rise risks, stronger winds, and an overall warmer and drier climate. This will likely harm important ecosystems, including wetlands, mangroves, and coral reefs. Some models project that arid and semi-arid areas may become drier and hotter, which would exacerbate preexisting water scarcity and agricultural challenges for the already vulnerable communities living there. That said, these projections are not corroborated by all models. The climate change impact on other areas, particularly south and west of Mount Kenya, could generally be positive, as it would provide even better conditions for agriculture.
The key climate change risk for Kenya is from extreme events, in particular droughts and floods. The frequency and intensity of such events is likely to increase because of climate change. They also often lead to adverse knock-on effects, such as soil erosion, land degradation, and pest breakouts. Overall, Kenya’s updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) (2020) estimates that between 2010 and 2020, adverse climate change-related events led to annual socioeconomic losses of 3–5 percent of total gross domestic product (GDP).
 
Date 2023-11-03
2023-11-06T20:46:11Z
2023-11-06T20:46:11Z
 
Type Report
 
Identifier Detelinova, Iva; Thomas, Timothy S.; Hammond, Wole; Arndt, Channing; and Hartley, Faaiqa. 2023. From climate risk to resilience: Unpacking the economic impacts of climate change in Kenya. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute; Cape Town: The African Climate Foundation.
https://hdl.handle.net/10568/132775
https://www.ifpri.org/publication/climate-risk-resilience-unpacking-economic-impacts-climate-change-kenya
https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.136953
 
Language en
 
Rights CC-BY-4.0
Open Access
 
Format 51 p.
application/pdf
 
Publisher International Food Policy Research Institute; The African Climate Foundation