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Mapping climate insecurity hotspots: Enhancing climate peace and security decision making in East Africa and greater Horn of Africa

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Title Mapping climate insecurity hotspots: Enhancing climate peace and security decision making in East Africa and greater Horn of Africa
 
Creator Kenduiywo, Benson
Mendez, Andres
Liebig, Theresa
Belli, Anna
Villa, Victor
Achicanoy, Harold
Korir, Victor
Chepngetich, Brenda
Pacillo, Grazia
Laderach, Peter
 
Subject climate change
peacebuilding
conflicts
climate system
 
Description Climate change poses significant threats to East Africa and Greater Horn of Africa (EAGHA), impacting critical sectors such as agriculture, nutrition, resource availability, and overall human security. Projections indicate a temperature increase of 0.6°C to 1.6°C by 2050 in EAGHA countries with precipitation levels expected to either increase or remain stable on average. Despite acknowledging the existence of a complex nexus linking climate and conflict, there is still a pressing need to identify specific areas where climate impacts may have a more significant effect on conflict risks and security outcomes. This study aims at mapping the climate-security nexus by identifying locations where different conditions of climate, conflict and socio-economic vulnerabilities co-occur. We use conflict data from Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED), climate data from CHIRPS, TerraClimate, and AgERA5, and socio-economic data from Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). The mapping approach is designed on regular grids (megapixels) of approximately 20 km2 which identifies three categories of conflict (high, moderate, limited), climate conditions, and vulnerability risks. Results from this approach provides an overview of the current hotspots of climate insecurity in EAGHA. We anticipate that the context-specific information on where climate-related security risks have intensified including vulnerable communities will support governments, as well as development, climate, peace, and security stakeholders in improving their targeted interventions to regions highly exposed to climate-related security risks.
 
Date 2023-11-09
2023-11-23T06:47:47Z
2023-11-23T06:47:47Z
 
Type Working Paper
 
Identifier Kenduiywo, B.; Mendez, A.; Liebig, T.; Belli, A.; Villa, V.; Achicanoy, H.; Korir, V.; Chepngetich, B.; Pacillo, G.; Laderach, P. (2023) Mapping climate insecurity hotspots: Enhancing climate peace and security decision making in East Africa and greater Horn of Africa. In shaping the future of climate change action plans for sustainable development in Eastern Africa. Nairobi, Kenya. 13 p.
https://hdl.handle.net/10568/134672
 
Language en
 
Rights CC-BY-4.0
Open Access
 
Format 13 p.
application/pdf