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Tailored forecasts can predict extreme climate informing proactive interventions in East Africa

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Title Tailored forecasts can predict extreme climate informing proactive interventions in East Africa
 
Creator Funk, Chris
Harrison, Laura
Segele, Zewdu
Rosenstock, Todd Stuart
Steward, Peter
Anderson, C. Leigh
Coughlan de Perez, Erin
Maxwell, Daniel
Endris, Hussen Seid
Koch, Eunice
Artan, Guleid
Teshome, Fetene
Aura, Stella Maris
Galu, Gideon
Korecha, Diriba
Anderson, Weston
Hoell, Andrew
Damerau, Kerstin
Williams, Emily
Ghosh, Aniruddha
Ramirez-Villegas, Julian
Hughes, David
 
Subject agriculture
agricultura
climate services
servicios climáticos
toma de decisiones
decision making
climate
drought
sequía
forecasting
clima
predicción climática
 
Description Abstract This commentary discusses new advances in the predictability of east African rains and highlights the potential for improved early warning systems (EWS), humanitarian relief efforts, and agricultural decision‐making. Following an unprecedented sequence of five droughts, 23 million east Africans faced starvation in 2022, requiring >$2 billion in aid. Here, we update climate attribution studies showing that these droughts resulted from an interaction of climate change and La Niña. Then we describe, for the first time, how attribution‐based insights can be combined with the latest dynamical models to predict droughts at 8‐month lead‐times. We then discuss behavioral and social barriers to forecast use, and review literature examining how EWS might (or might not) enhance agro‐pastoral advisories and humanitarian interventions. Finally, in reference to the new World Meteorological Organization “Early Warning for All” Executive Action Plan, we conclude with a set of recommendations supporting actionable and authoritative climate services. Trust , urgency , and accuracy can help overcome barriers created by limited funding , uncertain tradeoffs , and inertia . Understanding how climate change is producing predictable climate extremes now, investing in African‐led EWS, and building better links between EWS and agricultural development efforts can support long‐term adaptation, reducing chronic needs for billions of dollars in reactive assistance. In Africa and beyond, climate change brings increasingly extreme sea surface temperature (SST) gradients. Using climate models, we can often see these extremes coming. Prediction, therefore, offers opportunities for proactive risk management and improved advisory services, if we can create effective societal linkages via cross‐silo collaborations.
 
Date 2023-07-01
2023-11-29T11:09:42Z
2023-11-29T11:09:42Z
 
Type Journal Article
 
Identifier Funk, C.; Harrison, L.; Segele, Z.; Rosenstock, T.S.; Steward, P.R.; Anderson, C.L.; Coughlan de Perez, E.; Maxwell, D.; Endris, H.S.; Koch, E.; Artan, G.; Teshome, F.; Aura, S.M.; Galu, G.; Korecha, D.; Anderson, W.; Hoell, A.; Damerau, K.; Williams, E.; Ghosh, A.; Ramirez-Villegas, J.; Hughes, D. (2023) Tailored forecasts can predict extreme climate informing proactive interventions in East Africa. Earth’s Future 11(7): 16 p. ISSN: 2328-4277
2328-4277
https://hdl.handle.net/10568/134831
https://doi.org/10.1029/2023ef003524
 
Language en
 
Rights CC-BY-4.0
Open Access
 
Format 16 p.
application/pdf
 
Publisher American Geophysical Union
 
Source Earth’s Future