Record Details

The modelled costs of adaptation

CGSpace

View Archive Info
 
 
Field Value
 
Title The modelled costs of adaptation
 
Creator Watkiss, Paul
de Bruin, Kelly
Dasgupta, Shouro
Ebi, Kristie
Hinkel, Jochen
Hunt, Alistair
Lincke, Daniel
Rozenberg, Julie
Sayer, Pieter
Shariq, Ammara
Sulser, Timothy B.
Tiggeloven, Timothy
Tröltzsch, Jenny
Ward, Philip
Wreford, Anita
 
Subject adaptation
climate change
climate change adaptation
developing countries
estimated costs
finance
infrastructure
 
Description Key messages ▶ The Adaptation Finance Gap (AFG) Update 2023 has undertaken an updated modelling assessment of the cost of adaptation for developing countries. This analysis has used a suite of global sector assessment models, complemented by new analysis in additional sectors. ▶ The update analysis estimates the plausible central costs of adaptation at approximately US$240 billion per year this decade (up to 2030), with a range of US$130–415 billion per year. The central estimate is equivalent to 0.56 per cent of the gross domestic product (GDP) (2021) for all developing countries (or approximately US$33 per capita/per year). ▶ The highest adaptation costs are for river flood protection, infrastructure and coastal protection, and for the regions of East Asia and the Pacific and Latin America and the Caribbean. ▶ The highest absolute costs are for the upper- and lower-middle-income countries. However, when expressed as a percentage of GDP, adaptation costs are much higher for low-income countries (3.5 per cent) than for lower-middle-income (0.7 per cent) and upper-middle-income (0.5 per cent) countries. ▶ The costs for lower-income and lower-middle-income countries are estimated at US$76 billion per year this decade: the costs for small island developing States (SIDS) alone are estimated at US$4.7 billion per year (0.7 per cent of their GDP) and for least developed countries (LDCs) at US$25 billion per year (2 per cent of their GDP). ▶ The modelled costs of adaptation are estimated to increase significantly by 2050, especially for high-warming scenarios. ▶ These updated costs show a significant increase compared to previous similar studies. This not only reflects the more negative impacts of climate change reported in the literature (for the sectors previously modelled), but also a wider range of risks and sectors.
 
Date 2023
2023-12-04T16:12:50Z
2023-12-04T16:12:50Z
 
Type Report
 
Identifier Watkiss, Paul; de Bruin, Kelly; Dasgupta, Shouro; Ebi, Kristie; Hinkel, Jochen; Sulser, Timothy B.; et al. 2023. The modelled costs of adaptation. In Adaptation Gap Report 2023: Underfinanced. Underprepared. Inadequate investment and planning on climate adaptation leaves world exposed. Chaper 2, Pp. 9-27. Nairobi, Kenya: United Nations Environment Programme. https://doi.org/10.59117/20.500.11822/43796
https://hdl.handle.net/10568/134957
https://doi.org/10.59117/20.500.11822/43796
 
Language en
 
Relation Discussion paper https://ebrary.ifpri.org/digital/collection/p15738coll2/id/129825
Adaptation Gap Report
 
Rights Copyrighted; all rights reserved
Open Access
 
Format 9-27
 
Publisher United Nations Environment Programme