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Replication Data for "Jihadist terrorist attacks and far right party preferences: An ‘unexpected event during survey design’ in four European countries"

Harvard Dataverse (Africa Rice Center, Bioversity International, CCAFS, CIAT, IFPRI, IRRI and WorldFish)

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Title Replication Data for "Jihadist terrorist attacks and far right party preferences: An ‘unexpected event during survey design’ in four European countries"
 
Identifier https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/KUX8MN
 
Creator Vlandas, Tim
Halikiopoulou, Daphne
 
Publisher Harvard Dataverse
 
Description This article presents new empirical evidence about the impact of Jihadist terrorist attacks on far right preferences using the ‘unexpected event during survey’ research design. This strategy allows us to match individual-level data from the European Social Survey (ESS) to data on Jihadist terrorist attacks to compare respondents’ party preferences before and after a terrorist attack during the same survey period in the Netherlands, Sweden, France and Germany. We theorise and test three distinct hypotheses about how different combinations of attitudinal changes including out-group prejudice and trust in institutions impact on far right preferences. We find no statistically significant effects. Analyses of the two indirect mechanisms- i.e., prejudice and trust- yield mixed results consistent with the null effect on far right party preferences. By showing that terrorist attacks are unlikely to decisively change party support despite attracting significant public attention and affecting political attitudes, our results challenge the argument that Jihadist terrorism necessarily benefits the far-right and highlight the importance of null effects for overcoming confirmation bias in the study of voting behaviour.
 
Subject Social Sciences
Jihadist terrorism, far right, Europe, European Social Survey (ESS), unexpected event during survey design, null result
 
Date 2023-12-01
 
Contributor Vlandas, Tim