| Description |
A Hawthorne effect found in election studies is that pre-election survey participation increases voter turnout. Using the Swedish National Election Studies, Granberg and Holmberg (1992) showed evidence in support of this effect. However, their findings have been criticized and more recent studies have failed to find any treatment effect of pre-election survey participation (cf. Mann 2005). I re-examine an updated version of Granberg and HolmbergâÂÂs time series cumulative data file covering eight additional election studies (in total 14 election studies from 1960 to 2010). These studies have an experimental component since half of the sample is randomly assigned to be interviewed before the election and the other half to be interviewed after the election. By comparing validated turnout in the pre-election sample with the post-election sample it is possible to estimate the causal effect of survey participation on voter turnout. The results show that participating in the pre-election survey indeed has a significant and positive effect on voter turnout. Moreover, this paper evaluates whether the treatment effect is unevenly distributed in the population. Results show that citizens with a low propensity to vote are more affected by taking part in election studies than citizens with a high propensity to vote. In addition, the study estimates the long-term effects of survey participation. Results show that participating in an election survey can have significant effects on voter turnout several years later.
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