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Replication data for: Warming Increases the Risk of Civil War in Africa

Harvard Dataverse (Africa Rice Center, Bioversity International, CCAFS, CIAT, IFPRI, IRRI and WorldFish)

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Title Replication data for: Warming Increases the Risk of Civil War in Africa
 
Identifier https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/28109
 
Creator Burke, Marshall
Miguel, Edward
Satyanath, Shanker
Dykema, John
Lobell, David
 
Publisher Harvard Dataverse
 
Description Armed conflict within nations has had disastrous humanitarian consequences throughout much of the world. Here we undertake the first comprehensive examination of the potential impact of global climate change on armed conflict in sub-Saharan Africa. We find strong historical linkages between civil war and temperature in Africa, with warmer years leading to significant increases in the likelihood of war. When combined with climate model projections of future temperature trends, this historical response to temperature suggests a roughly 54% increase in armed conflict incidence by 2030, or an additional 393,000 battle deaths if future wars are as deadly as recent wars. Our results suggest an urgent need to reform African governments' and foreign aid donors' policies to deal with rising temperatures.
 
Subject Social Sciences