Record Details

Replication data for: Economic Shocks and Conflict: The (Absence of?) Evidence from Commodity Prices

Harvard Dataverse (Africa Rice Center, Bioversity International, CCAFS, CIAT, IFPRI, IRRI and WorldFish)

View Archive Info
 
 
Field Value
 
Title Replication data for: Economic Shocks and Conflict: The (Absence of?) Evidence from Commodity Prices
 
Identifier https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/28140
 
Creator Bazzi, Samuel
Blattman, Christopher
 
Publisher Harvard Dataverse
 
Description One of the most influential ideas in the study of political instability is that income shocks provoke conflict. “State prize” theories argue that higher revenues increase incentives to capture the state. “Opportunity cost” theories argue that higher prices decrease individual incentives to revolt. Both mechanisms are central to leading models of state development and collapse. But are they well-founded? We examine the effects of exogenous commodity price shocks on conflict and coups, and find little evidence in favor of either theory. Evidence runs especially against the state as prize. We do find weak evidence that the intensity of fighting falls as prices rise—results more consistent with the idea that revenues augment state capacity, not prize-seeking or opportunity cost. Nevertheless, the evidence for any of these income-conflict mechanisms is weak at best. We argue that errors and publication bias have likely distorted the theoretical and empirical literature on political instability.
 
Subject conflict
 
Date 2011-12