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Climate change mitigation through livestock system transitions

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Title Climate change mitigation through livestock system transitions
 
Creator Havlík, Petr
Valin, Hugo
Herrero, Mario T.
Obersteiner, Michael
Schmid, Erwin
Rufino, Mariana C.
Mosnier, Aline
Thornton, Philip K.
Böttcher, Hannes
Conant, Richard T.
Frank, S.
Fritz, Steffen
Fuss, S.
Kraxner, Florian
Notenbaert, An Maria Omer
 
Subject livestock
environment
climate change
 
Description Livestock are responsible for 12% of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Sustainable intensification of livestock production systems might become a key climate mitigation technology. However, livestock production systems vary substantially, making the implementation of climate mitigation policies a formidable challenge. Here, we provide results from an economic model using a detailed and high-resolution representation of livestock production systems. We project that by 2030 autonomous transitions toward more efficient systems would decrease emissions by 736 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per year (MtCO2e⋅y−1), mainly through avoided emissions from the conversion of 162 Mha of natural land. A moderate mitigation policy targeting emissions from both the agricultural and land-use change sectors with a carbon price of US$10 per tCO2e could lead to an abatement of 3,223 MtCO2e⋅y−1. Livestock system transitions would contribute 21% of the total abatement, intra- and interregional relocation of livestock production another 40%, and all other mechanisms would add 39%. A comparable abatement of 3,068 MtCO2e⋅y−1 could be achieved also with a policy targeting only emissions from land-use change. Stringent climate policies might lead to reductions in food availability of up to 200 kcal per capita per day globally. We find that mitigation policies targeting emissions from land-use change are 5 to 10 times more efficient—measured in “total abatement calorie cost”—than policies targeting emissions from livestock only. Thus, fostering transitions toward more productive livestock production systems in combination with climate policies targeting the land-use change appears to be the most efficient lever to deliver desirable climate and food availability outcomes.
 
Date 2014-03-11
2014-02-26T17:11:40Z
2014-02-26T17:11:40Z
 
Type Journal Article
 
Identifier Havlík, P., Valin, H., Herrero, M., Obersteiner, M., Schmid, E., Rufino, M.C., Mosnier, A., Thornton, P.K., Böttcher, H., Conant, R.T., Frank, S., Fritz, S., Fuss, S., Kraxner, F. and Notenbaert, A. 2014. Climate change mitigation through livestock system transitions. PNAS 111(10): 3709 - 3714
0027-8424
1091-6490
https://hdl.handle.net/10568/35050
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1308044111
 
Language en
 
Relation http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web/home/about/news/20140225-PNAS.html
 
Rights Open Access
 
Publisher Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
 
Source Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America