ICAR Research Data Repository for Knowledge Management
Re-examining Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict
Harvard Dataverse (Africa Rice Center, Bioversity International, CCAFS, CIAT, IFPRI, IRRI and WorldFish)
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| Title |
Re-examining Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict
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| Identifier |
https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/29275
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| Creator |
Miguel, Edward
Satyanath, Shanker |
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| Publisher |
Harvard Dataverse
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| Description |
Using annual rainfall variation as an instrumental variable for growth, we show that economic growth is negatively related to civil conflict in Africa. Antonio Ciccone (2011) argues that thanks to rainfall's mean-reverting nature, rainfall levels are preferable to annual changes. We make three points. First, our findings hold using rainfall levels as instruments. Second, Ciccone (2011) does not provide theoretical justification for preferring rainfall levels. Third, the first-stage relationship between rainfall and growth is weaker after 2000, suggesting that alternative instruments are needed when studying recent conflicts. We highlight the accumulating microeconomic evidence that adverse economic shocks lead to political violence.
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| Subject |
Social Sciences
Civil Conflict Economic Growth Africa Political Violence |
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