ICAR Research Data Repository for Knowledge Management
Replication data for: Forecasting the onset of genocide and politicide: Annual out-of-sample forecasts on a global dataset, 1988–2003
Harvard Dataverse (Africa Rice Center, Bioversity International, CCAFS, CIAT, IFPRI, IRRI and WorldFish)
View Archive Info| Field | Value | |
| Title |
Replication data for: Forecasting the onset of genocide and politicide: Annual out-of-sample forecasts on a global dataset, 1988–2003
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| Identifier |
https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/29715
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| Creator |
Goldsmith, Benjamin E
Butcher, Charles R Semenovich, Dimitri Sowmya, Arcot |
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| Publisher |
Harvard Dataverse
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| Description |
We present what is, to the best of our knowledge, the first published set of annual out-of-sample forecasts of genocide and politicide based on a global dataset. Our goal is to produce a prototype for a real-time model capable of forecasting one year into the future. Building on the current literature, we take several important steps forward.We implement an unconditional two-stage model encompassing both instability and genocide, allowing our sample to be the available global data, rather than using conditional case selection or a case-control approach. We explore factors exhibiting considerable variance over time to improve yearly forecasting performance. And we produce annual lists of at-risk states in a format that should be of use to policymakers seeking to prevent such mass atrocities. Our out-of-sample forecasts for 1988–2003 predict 90.9% of genocide onsets correctly while also predicting 79.2% of non-onset years correctly, an improvement over a previous study using a case-control in-sample approach. We produce 16 annual forecasts based only on previous years’ data, which identify six of 11 cases of genocide/politicide onset within the top 5% of at-risk countries per year. We believe this represents substantial progress towards useful real-time forecasting of such rare events. We conclude by suggesting ways to further enhance predictive performance. |
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| Subject |
Forecasting
Genocide Political stability Political violence |
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| Date |
2013-06
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