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Replication data for: What the Numbers Say: A Digit-Based Test for Election Fraud

Harvard Dataverse (Africa Rice Center, Bioversity International, CCAFS, CIAT, IFPRI, IRRI and WorldFish)

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Title Replication data for: What the Numbers Say: A Digit-Based Test for Election Fraud
 
Identifier https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/2PISVQ
 
Creator Bernd Beber
Alexandra Scacco
 
Publisher Harvard Dataverse
 
Description Is it possible to detect manipulation by looking only at electoral returns? Drawing on work in psychology, we exploit individuals' biases in generating numbers to highlight suspicious digit patterns in reported vote counts. First, we show that fair election procedures produce returns where last digits occur with equal frequency, but lab experiments indicate that individuals tend to favor some numerals over others, even when subjects have incentives to properly randomize. Second, individuals underestimate the likelihood of digit repetition in sequences of random integers, so we should observe relatively few instances of repeated numbers in manipulated vote tallies. Third, lab experiments demonstrate a preference for pairs of adjacent digits, which suggests that such pairs should be abundant on fraudulent return sheets. Fourth, subjects avoid pairs of distant numerals, so those should appear with lower frequency on tainted returns. We test for deviations in digit patterns using data from Sweden's 2002 parliamentary elections, Senegal's 2000 and 2007 presidential elections, vote returns from Chicago for the 1924 and 1928 presidential elections, and previously unavailable results from Nigeria's 2003 presidential election. We find weak evidence for fraud in Chicago and substantial evidence that manipulation occurred in Nigeria as well as in Senegal in 2007.
 
Date 2011-11-21