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Prospects of livestock and dairy production in India under time series framework

Indian Agricultural Research Journals

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Title Prospects of livestock and dairy production in India under time series framework
 
Creator PAUL, RANJIT KUMAR
ALAM, WASI
PAUL, A K
 
Subject ARIMA Model
Forecasting
Milk production
Stationarity
Trend
 
Description Share of livestock sector especially dairy production in total gross domestic product (GDP) has shown a continuous rise trend over the last 30 years. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) methodology was applied for modeling and forecasting of milk production of India. Auto-correlation (AC) and partial auto-correlation (PAC) functions were estimated, which led to the identification and construction of ARIMA models, suitable in explaining the time series and forecasting the future production. A significant increasing linear trend in the total milk production in India was found. To this end, evaluation of forecasting is carried out with mean absolute prediction error (MAPE), relative mean absolute prediction error (RMAPE) and root mean square error (RMSE). The best identified model for the data under consideration was used for out-of-sample forecasting up to 2015.
 
Publisher Indian Council of Agricultural Research
 
Date 2014-04-16
 
Type info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
 
Format application/pdf
 
Identifier https://epubs.icar.org.in/index.php/IJAnS/article/view/39858
10.56093/ijans.v84i4.39858
 
Source The Indian Journal of Animal Sciences; Vol. 84 No. 4 (2014); 462–466
2394-3327
0367-8318
 
Language eng
 
Relation https://epubs.icar.org.in/index.php/IJAnS/article/view/39858/17942
 
Rights Copyright (c) 2014 The Indian Journal of Animal Sciences
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0