Why “Cheap” Threats Are Meaningful: Threat Perception and Resolve in North Korean Propaganda
Harvard Dataverse (Africa Rice Center, Bioversity International, CCAFS, CIAT, IFPRI, IRRI and WorldFish)
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Title |
Why “Cheap” Threats Are Meaningful: Threat Perception and Resolve in North Korean Propaganda
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Identifier |
https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/XNDBTZ
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Creator |
Lauren Sukin
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Publisher |
Harvard Dataverse
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Description |
Threatening propaganda—particularly when extreme and frequent—is often considered “cheap talk.” However, this article argues systematic and comprehensive analysis of such threats can still lend valuable insights. In particular, the aggregate content of threats reveals information about the threat perceptions of the messenger, while the frequency of threats provides information about the messenger’s resolve. To test this theory, I analyze a comprehensive dataset of North Korean propaganda between 1996 and 2018, showing that North Korea systematically issues threats to its adversaries when they engage in joint military exercises or when they take steps, such as the development of missile defenses, that challenge the survivability or deterrent capability of the North Korean nuclear arsenal. Additionally, North Korea’s rhetoric signals its resolve. As the volume of North Korean threats increases, so too does the likelihood that North Korea will engage in military provocations, including nuclear and missile tests.
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Subject |
Social Sciences
International Crises Conflict Security Cheap talk Signalling Nuclear weapons |
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Contributor |
Interactions, International
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