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Replication Data for: Collective Deterrence in the Shadow of Shifting Power

Harvard Dataverse (Africa Rice Center, Bioversity International, CCAFS, CIAT, IFPRI, IRRI and WorldFish)

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Title Replication Data for: Collective Deterrence in the Shadow of Shifting Power
 
Identifier https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/NGUEMV
 
Creator Phillips, Julianne
Wolford, Scott
 
Publisher Harvard Dataverse
 
Description Twelve of twenty-six war-winning coalitions since 1815 have seen at least two members go to war against one another after victory. What separates durable and fragile war-winning coalitions? To answer this question, we analyze a game-theoretic model of shifting intra-coalition power and collective deterrence. We show that (1) shifting power within war-winning coalitions can undermine commitments to the postwar settlement, but (2) revisionist threats from a powerful defeated side can enhance the credibility of commitments within the winning coalition, securing peace when intra-coalition war would otherwise be inevitable. We also recover these patterns in empirical models of the outbreak of war between former coalition partners: shifting power within a coalition is associated with increased probabilities of intra-coalition war, but only when the defeated side is not too powerful. A common enemy can thus preserve peace between former partners who would otherwise go to war over the terms of shared victory.
 
Subject Social Sciences
Collective Deterrence, Coalitions, Power
 
Contributor Prins, Brandon