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Replication Data for: The Determinants of Uncertainty in International Relations

Harvard Dataverse (Africa Rice Center, Bioversity International, CCAFS, CIAT, IFPRI, IRRI and WorldFish)

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Title Replication Data for: The Determinants of Uncertainty in International Relations
 
Identifier https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/OLNJSY
 
Creator Kaplow, Jeffrey M
Gartzke, Erik
 
Publisher Harvard Dataverse
 
Description Uncertainty about military power is widely considered an important determinant of international conflict, but research in international relations provides relatively little guidance about the origins of uncertainty. What factors influence the validity of actors’ assessments of military capabilities? When would one expect uncertainty about military capabilities to be particularly high, or especially low? We examine a series of factors capable of explaining the sources of uncertainty in international relations, positing that the uncertainty of assessments is a function of both characteristics of the state being assessed and the overall strategic environment. We test our theory using new measures of uncertainty that we derive from analyzing publicly available estimates of national military capabilities. Our findings offer a novel set of implications both for research that relies on uncertainty as a key cause of conflict and for policymakers faced with evaluating foreign military assessments.
 
Subject Social Sciences
Uncertainty, Military Power, Conflict
 
Contributor Prins, Brandon