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Replication Data for: Same as the Old Boss? Domestic Politics and the Turnover Trap

Harvard Dataverse (Africa Rice Center, Bioversity International, CCAFS, CIAT, IFPRI, IRRI and WorldFish)

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Title Replication Data for: Same as the Old Boss? Domestic Politics and the Turnover Trap
 
Identifier https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/PJS3D0
 
Creator Wu, Cathy Xuanxuan
Licht, Amanda A
Wolford, Scott
 
Publisher Harvard Dataverse
 
Description Leadership turnover brings to office new leaders with private reputational incentives to bluff about their resolve, incentivizing both incumbents and their foreign rivals to take steps that increase the risk of war. Some leader changes, however, are more dangerous than others. The turnover trap arises when there is sufficient uncertainty about a new leader's resolve and expectations of future interactions, and whether those factors coincide depends on how new leaders come to power and the political system in which its turnover occurs. We expect that those instances of leader change most likely to generate turnover traps entail (1) democratic incumbents unconnected to their predecessor's support coalition and (2) autocratic incumbents that inherit their predecessors' coalitions. In a sample of strategic rivals from 1918-2007, we find that the probability of dispute escalation declines over leaders' tenure, but only for the two types of turnover we identify as most dangerous.
 
Subject Social Sciences
Leadership Turnover, Reputation, Strategic Rivals, Tenure, Conflict Escalation
 
Contributor Prins, Brandon