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Replication Data for: Strategic Uncertainty and Elite Defections in Electoral Autocracies. A Cross-National Analysis

Harvard Dataverse (Africa Rice Center, Bioversity International, CCAFS, CIAT, IFPRI, IRRI and WorldFish)

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Title Replication Data for: Strategic Uncertainty and Elite Defections in Electoral Autocracies. A Cross-National Analysis
 
Identifier https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/RHGJ8P
 
Creator del Río, Adrián
 
Publisher Harvard Dataverse
 
Description Defections within the ruling elite often endanger authoritarian rule, emboldening opposition groups and paving the way for regime breakdown. Yet, the consequences of elite defections are better understood than their causes. Why do some authoritarian regimes experience more defections to the opposition than others? This paper develops a theory of the causes of elite defection and tests it using a novel dataset based on the political careers of 15,013 legislative deputies and ministers in twelve electoral autocracies. The theory predicts that regime elites defect when there are greater opportunities to capitalize on the discontent of other regime elites and voters. Regimes with weak party mechanisms that are also supported by many factions experience more defections. Finally, defections increase during economic downturns and when the government’s control of mass media declines, which helps potential defectors coordinate with anti-regime voters.
 
Subject Social Sciences
Defections, party switching, dictatorship, democratization, political elites
 
Contributor del Río, Adrián