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Prediction of Temperature through SARIMA Model at Jabalpur in Madhya Pradesh

Indian Agricultural Research Journals

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Title Prediction of Temperature through SARIMA Model at Jabalpur in Madhya Pradesh
 
Creator A.K. Srivastava
Umesh Singh
 
Subject Weekly temperature
statistical modelling
mean error
prediction
 
Description The goal of this study was to develop a SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) model for weekly temperature prediction in the Jabalpur district of Madhya Pradesh. Weekly maximum and minimum temperature data from 1980 to 2018 were used to develop the model, while data from 2019 to 2021 were used to validate it in Jabalpur. SARIMA models were developed, and the best-fitting models with the highest accuracy were chosen for weekly maximum and minimum temperature prediction. The accuracy of the models was tested, and the results of various accuracy tests were reported in this paper.SARIMA (0,0,1)(2,1,0)52 and SARIMA(4,0,0)(1, 1, 0)52 were shown to produce better results. For SARIMA models, the MAE values are 1.60, 1.51, the RMSE is 2.113, 2.050, and the ACF1 value is 0.060, -0.001. The ability of the model to predict weekly temperature was determined to be good. The reported SARIMA models could be used to forecast the weekly temperature.
 
Publisher Annals of Agricultural Research
 
Date 2023-12-24
 
Type info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
Peer-reviewed Article
 
Format application/pdf
 
Identifier https://epubs.icar.org.in/index.php/AAR/article/view/146717
 
Source Annals of Agricultural Research; Vol. 44 No. 3 (2023); 360-369
0970-3179
 
Language eng
 
Relation https://epubs.icar.org.in/index.php/AAR/article/view/146717/53465