Description |
An extensive theoretical and practitioner literature addresses the drivers and consequences of change and transformation of violent rebel actors during conflicts. However, measurement challenges constrain large-N empirical study of the effects and consequences of such transformations. This Research Note introduces a strategy to identify periods of transformation and change in the operation of non-state armed militant groups via computational text analysis of trends in reporting on activities. It presents the measurement approach and demonstrates scalability to a corpus of more than 200 militant groups operating from 1989 to 2020. The study concludes by extending a recent analysis of the impacts of uncertainty on conflict termination. An online appendix demonstrates the advantages and drawbacks of the measurement through a series of case studies.
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