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Replication Data for: Partisan Communication in Two-Stage Elections: The Effect of Primaries on Intra-Campaign Positional Shifts in Congressional Elections

Harvard Dataverse (Africa Rice Center, Bioversity International, CCAFS, CIAT, IFPRI, IRRI and WorldFish)

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Title Replication Data for: Partisan Communication in Two-Stage Elections: The Effect of Primaries on Intra-Campaign Positional Shifts in Congressional Elections
 
Identifier https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/5REXBL
 
Creator Cowburn, Mike
Sältzer, Marius
 
Publisher Harvard Dataverse
 
Description The influence of congressional primary elections on candidate positioning remains
disputed and poorly understood. We test whether candidates communicate
artificially ‘extreme’ positions during the nomination, as revealed by moderation
following a primary defeat. We apply a scaling method based on candidates’
language on Twitter to estimate positions of 988 candidates in contested U.S. House
of Representatives primaries in 2020 over time, demonstrating validity against
NOMINATE (r > 0.93) where possible. Losing Democratic candidates moderated
significantly after their primary defeat, indicating strategic position-taking for
perceived electoral benefit, where the nomination contest induced artificially
‘extreme’ communication. We find no such effect among Republicans. These
findings have implications for candidate strategy in two-stage elections and provide
further evidence of elite partisan asymmetry.
 
Subject Social Sciences
 
Date 2023-12-06
 
Contributor Cowburn, Mike