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Austerity and Anti-Systemic Protest: Bringing Hardships Back In

Harvard Dataverse (Africa Rice Center, Bioversity International, CCAFS, CIAT, IFPRI, IRRI and WorldFish)

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Title Austerity and Anti-Systemic Protest: Bringing Hardships Back In
 
Identifier https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/CZZDTF
 
Creator Shefner, Jon
Rowland, Aaron
Pasdirtz, George
 
Publisher Harvard Dataverse
 
Description Multimodel inference is used to develop causal models of anti-systemic austerity protest during the 1990-2000 period in Latin America. Four high-protest, semi-peripheral countries (Argentina, Brazil, Mexico and Venezuela) were chosen for the analysis.

Causal models were first developed and tested in Mexico and then cross-validated
on Argentina, Brazil and Venezuela. Indexes of IMF pressure, Short-term hardship,
Long-term Hardship, Globalization, Civil Liberties and National Social Investment
were developed in addition to an index of Austerity Protest. The protest index was
developed using careful coding and cross checking of newspaper accounts while the
other indexes were largely derived from World Bank Development Indicators and other
sources. Indexes were tested for reliability and validity. Causal models for each country
were developed and subjected to intensive testing of assumptions. The country-level
models (which showed a good deal of historical variability) were then combined and
tested using Multimodel averaging. Multimodel path analysis showed significant paths
from IMF pressure through short-term hardship to anti-systemic austerity protest.
There were also significant effects of shocks to short-term hardship and protest. For
two of the countries, Mexico and Venezuela, the path to protest was through long-term
hardships generated by the world-system.
 
Subject Social Sciences
Protest, Hardship, Globalization
 
Contributor George Weddington