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Does Uncertainty Affect Non-response to the European Central Bank’s Survey of Professional Forecasters?

Harvard Dataverse (Africa Rice Center, Bioversity International, CCAFS, CIAT, IFPRI, IRRI and WorldFish)

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Title Does Uncertainty Affect Non-response to the European Central Bank’s Survey of Professional Forecasters?
 
Identifier https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/DDAEA0
 
Creator López-Pérez, Víctor
 
Publisher Harvard Dataverse
 
Description This paper explores how changes in macroeconomic uncertainty have affected the decision to reply to the European Central Bank’s Survey of Professional Forecasters (ECB’s SPF). The results suggest that higher (lower) aggregate uncertainty increases (reduces) non-response to the survey. This effect is statistically and economically significant. Therefore, the assumption that individual ECB’s SPF data are missing at random may not be appropriate. Moreover, the forecasters that perceive more individual uncertainty seem to have a lower likelihood of replying to the survey. Consequently, measures of uncertainty computed from individual ECB’s SPF data could be biased downwards.
 
Subject Social Sciences
Non-response
Uncertainty
Survey of Professional Forecasters
European Central Bank
 
Language English
 
Contributor Thiessen, Marlies