ARIMA & ARIMAX Analysis on the Effect of Variability of Rainfall, Temperature on Wheat Yield in Haryana
Indian Agricultural Research Journals
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Title |
ARIMA & ARIMAX Analysis on the Effect of Variability of Rainfall, Temperature on Wheat Yield in Haryana
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Creator |
Goyal, Megha
Agarwal, Subodh Suman Ghalawat Malik, Joginder Singh |
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Subject |
Agribusiness & Extension management
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Description |
The national and state governments require crop production forecasts to make a variety of policy decisions on import-export, storage, distribution, price, and other factors. This article presents a pre-harvest forecasting method specially developed for crops grown in the western region of Haryana (India). The western region includes Hisar, Sirsa, and Bhiwani districts. For crop forecasting in the Hisar, Sirsa, and Bhiwani regions ARIMA and ARIMAX models have been framed. For the development of the ARIMAX model, climate data during the growing season of the crop were used as input along with the crop yield. The percentage difference between the root mean square error and the wheat yield estimations determined by the real-time yield(s) indicates how well-competing models performed in terms of forecasting. The ARIMAX model performs well at all time points with a lower measurement error compared to the ARIMA model.
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Publisher |
Indian Society of Extension Education, ICAR- Indian Agricultural Research Institute, New Delhi
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Date |
2024-04-06
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Type |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Peer reviewed Research Article Text, Image |
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Format |
application/pdf
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Identifier |
https://epubs.icar.org.in/index.php/IJEE/article/view/146854
10.48165/IJEE.2024.60118 |
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Source |
Indian Journal of Extension Education; Vol. 60 No. 1 (2024): Indian Journal of Extension Education; 95-99
2454-552X 0537-1996 |
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Language |
eng
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Relation |
https://epubs.icar.org.in/index.php/IJEE/article/view/146854/53562
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Rights |
Copyright (c) 2024 Indian Society of Extension Education, Division of Agricultural ExtensionICAR- IARI, New Delhi
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0 |
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