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ARIMA & ARIMAX Analysis on the Effect of Variability of Rainfall, Temperature on Wheat Yield in Haryana

Indian Agricultural Research Journals

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Title ARIMA & ARIMAX Analysis on the Effect of Variability of Rainfall, Temperature on Wheat Yield in Haryana
 
Creator Goyal, Megha
Agarwal, Subodh
Suman Ghalawat
Malik, Joginder Singh
 
Subject Agribusiness & Extension management
 
Description The national and state governments require crop production forecasts to make a variety of policy decisions on import-export, storage, distribution, price, and other factors. This article presents a pre-harvest forecasting method specially developed for crops grown in the western region of Haryana (India). The western region includes Hisar, Sirsa, and Bhiwani districts. For crop forecasting in the Hisar, Sirsa, and Bhiwani regions ARIMA and ARIMAX models have been framed. For the development of the ARIMAX model, climate data during the growing season of the crop were used as input along with the crop yield. The percentage difference between the root mean square error and the wheat yield estimations determined by the real-time yield(s) indicates how well-competing models performed in terms of forecasting. The ARIMAX model performs well at all time points with a lower measurement error compared to the ARIMA model.
 
Publisher Indian Society of Extension Education, ICAR- Indian Agricultural Research Institute, New Delhi
 
Date 2024-04-06
 
Type info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
Peer reviewed Research Article
Text, Image
 
Format application/pdf
 
Identifier https://epubs.icar.org.in/index.php/IJEE/article/view/146854
10.48165/IJEE.2024.60118
 
Source Indian Journal of Extension Education; Vol. 60 No. 1 (2024): Indian Journal of Extension Education; 95-99
2454-552X
0537-1996
 
Language eng
 
Relation https://epubs.icar.org.in/index.php/IJEE/article/view/146854/53562
 
Rights Copyright (c) 2024 Indian Society of Extension Education, Division of Agricultural ExtensionICAR- IARI, New Delhi
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0