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Prediction of Annual Rural Unemployment Rate in West Bengal using Grey Model

Indian Agricultural Research Journals

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Title Prediction of Annual Rural Unemployment Rate in West Bengal using Grey Model
 
Creator V, Pavithra
Gupta, Deb Sankar
Basak, Pradip
Debnath, Manoj Kanti
Mula, Gobinda
 
Subject Unemployment rate (UR); Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS); Grey model; Forecast.
 
Description The rural unemployment rate is a critical economic indicator used to assess strength of rural economy in India. Annual estimates of rural UR are released in both usual status (ps+ss) as well as current weekly status (CWS) at the state and national level in India by National Statistics Office (NSO) through Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS). At present, the annual rural UR estimates are available for the state of West Bengal from the year 2017-18 to 2021-22. However, there is a notable delay in the publication of UR estimates as compared to the reference period. Therefore, accurate forecasting of the UR is crucial for timely and targeted interventions, and effective policy planning. Conventional forecasting models fail to provide accurate predictions of UR in these type of small time series due to the violation of requirement of number of data points. In contrast, the Grey model requires limited data to establish a differential forecasting model. In this study, application of grey model has been considered to forecast annual rural UR in West Bengal for different age groups as well as gender, and it was found that grey model provides satisfactory forecast.
 
Publisher Indian Society of Agricultural Statistics (ISAS)
 
Date 2024-05-10
 
Type info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
Peer-reviewed Article
 
Format application/pdf
 
Identifier https://epubs.icar.org.in/index.php/JISAS/article/view/151427
10.56093/JISAS.V78I1.6
 
Source Journal of the Indian Society of Agricultural Statistics; Vol. 78 No. 1 (2024); 47-52
0019-6363
 
Language eng
 
Relation https://epubs.icar.org.in/index.php/JISAS/article/view/151427/54511
 
Rights Copyright (c) 2024 Journal of the Indian Society of Agricultural Statistics
https://doi.org/10.56093/JISAS.V78I1.6