Import Risk Model: A quantitative risk assessment of classical swine fever virus (CSFV) introduction into Arunachal Pradesh via importation of pigs from neighbouring countries

Abstract

The aim was to assess the likelihood of an introduction of CSFV-infected or contaminated material through pathways of importance to the swine population by quantifying the volume of trade and scale of movement in Arunachal Pradesh sharing international borders with Bhutan, Burma and China. A binomial-probability model was employed to assess the annual probability of virus introduction based on the factors such as outbreak reports of CSF in these countries of import and their corresponding prevalence of infection along with subsequent import activities. The expected number of years, in which at least 1 CSFV incursion might occur from importation of live pig from Bhutan were 1022.23 years. Whereas, the predicted risks from pig imports from China were 3373.014, 842.82, 421.124 years for groups of 1,000, 4,000 and 8,000 herds respectively. For Myanmar, it was calculated to be 117132.6934, 58565.8363 and 29282.41 years for the different selection of herds accordingly. From the above results, it can be inferred that there is no threat for introduction of CSFV into Arunachal Pradesh via the neighbouring countries of Bhutan, China and Myanmar barring the illegal movement/importation of live pigs.