Temporal pattern and risk factors for occurrence of Canine Rabies in Chennai

Abstract

Rabies is one of the most important zoonoses resulting in a high case fatality rate in humans. Most of the human Rabies cases are due to dog bites which can be prevented by effective vaccination in dogs. Globally, epidemiological studies on understanding the seasonality and risk factors for occurrence in canines are limited. The present study aimed to understand the temporal pattern of Rabies occurrence in Chennai city of Tamil Nadu, India, and address the suggestive clinical signs for better clinical ante-mortem rabies diagnosis. Data of 598 suspected canine hippocampus brain smear samples with Seller's staining and/or FAT percent positivity of 71.57% (428/598) from March 2010 to February 2019 were included in this study. Cross-correlation between rabies cases and meteorological factors showed that maximum temperature (lag 15), morning relative humidity (lag 0 and lag 5) and evening relative humidity (lag 4) were significantly associated with rabies cases. Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model with exogenous variables (significant lags of meteorological variables) was used to fit the time series of canine Rabies in Chennai. In logistic regression analysis, the following risk factors were found to be playing a significant role in Rabies positivity viz ., behavioural changes in dogs (P < 0.001), free-roaming, unprovoked biting, hyper salivation (P < 0.05), dog bite history and drop jaw (P < 0.01). Hence, the study results highlight the need for continuous surveillance of canine Rabies for devising and implementing future preventive strategies and is helpful to establish the above-identified risk factors as a criterion to help in clinical rabies diagnosis.