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Performance evaluation of yield crop forecasting models using weather index regression analysis

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Title Performance evaluation of yield crop forecasting models using weather index regression analysis
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Creator Sanjeev Panwar
K.N. Singh
Anil Kumar
Ranjit Kumar Paul
Susheel Kumar Sarkar
Bishal Gurung
Abhishek Rathore
 
Subject Forecasting
Nonlinear regression model
Weather indices approach
Weather variables
 
Description Not Available
A crop forecast is a statement of the most likely magnitude of yield or production of a crop. It is made on the basis of known facts on a given date and it assumes that the weather conditions and damages during the remainder of the growing season will be about the same as the average of previous year. The present paper deals with use of non-linear regression analysis for developing wheat yield forecast model for Allahabad district (India). A novel statistical approach attempted in this study to use nonlinear models with different weather variables and their indices and compare them to identify a suitable forecasting model. Time series yield data of 40 years (1970-2010) and weather data for the year 1970-71 to 2009-10 have been utilized. The models have been used to forecast yield in the subsequent three years 2008-09 to 2009-10 (which were not included in model development). The approach provided reliable yield forecast about two months before harvest
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Date 2018-10-27T09:39:45Z
2018-10-27T09:39:45Z
2017-02-01
 
Type Research Paper
 
Identifier Panwar, Sanjeev, Singh, K.N., KumarAnil, Paul, R.K., Sarkar, S.K., Gurung, Bishal and Rathore Abhishek (2017) 2Performance evaluation of yield crop forecasting models using weather index regression analysis. Indian Journal of Agricultural Sciences 87 (2): 270
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http://krishi.icar.gov.in/jspui/handle/123456789/8344
 
Language English
 
Relation Not Available;
 
Publisher Indian Council of Agricultural Research, New Delhi