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Model and scenario variations in predicted number of generations of Spodopteralitura Fab. on peanut during future climate change scenario

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Title Model and scenario variations in predicted number of generations of Spodopteralitura Fab. on peanut during future climate change scenario
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Creator Srinivasa Rao, M*., Swathi, P., Rama Rao, C.A., Rao, K.V., Raju, B.M.K., Srinivas, K., Manimanjari, D., and Maheswari, M
 
Subject Not available
 
Description Not Available
The present study features the estimation of number of generations of tobacco caterpillar,
Spodoptera litura. Fab. on peanut crop at six locations in India using MarkSim, which provides
General Circulation Model (GCM) of future data on daily maximum (T.max), minimum
(T.min) air temperatures from six models viz., BCCR-BCM2.0, CNRM-CM3, CSIRO-Mk3.5,
ECHams5, INCM-CM3.0 and MIROC3.2 along with an ensemble of the six from three emission
scenarios (A2, A1B and B1). This data was used to predict the future pest scenarios following
the growing degree days approach in four different climate periods viz., Baseline-
1975, Near future (NF) -2020, Distant future (DF)-2050 and Very Distant future (VDF)—
2080. It is predicted that more generations would occur during the three future climate periods
with significant variation among scenarios and models. Among the seven models, 1–2
additional generations were predicted during DF and VDF due to higher future temperatures
in CNRM-CM3, ECHams5 & CSIRO-Mk3.5 models. The temperature projections of these
models indicated that the generation time would decrease by 18–22% over baseline. Analysis
of variance (ANOVA) was used to partition the variation in the predicted number of generations
and generation time of S. litura on peanut during crop season. Geographical
location explained 34% of the total variation in number of generations, followed by time period
(26%), model (1.74%) and scenario (0.74%). The remaining 14% of the variation was explained
by interactions. Increased number of generations and reduction of generation time
across the six peanut growing locations of India suggest that the incidence of S. litura may
increase due to projected increase in temperatures in future climate change periods.
Not Available
 
Date 2021-08-25T04:44:36Z
2021-08-25T04:44:36Z
2015
 
Type Research Paper
 
Identifier DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0116762. 10(2): 1-12.
Not Available
http://krishi.icar.gov.in/jspui/handle/123456789/60451
 
Language English
 
Relation Not Available;
 
Publisher PLOS ONE